York United 1-4 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 3W 2D 5L at York Lions Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Pacific FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Pacific FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.811 / defence 1.272 | Pacific FC attack 1.108 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.342. Data: 52 York United games / 52 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 17% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 57%. Fair-value odds: York United 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 17% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG York United 0.98 / Pacific FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.811 / def 1.272 | Pacific FC attack 1.108 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Pacific FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 1 - 4 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 17% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.81x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
17%
5.73
26%
3.89
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
York United xG
Total xG
2.88
1.89
Pacific FC xG
5.73
17%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
3%
38.03
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for York United and 1.89 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 18W 12D 22L from 52 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 16L across 52 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.27 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 8W 5D 12L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 11W 5D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.16 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 44% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 44% of games; Pacific FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 44% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 1-4 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 1.89 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Pacific FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 17% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 57%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.27 PPG, Pacific FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.