York United 3-2 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
York United and FC Edmonton meet at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 2W 2D 6L at York Lions Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Edmonton have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, FC Edmonton have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with FC Edmonton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 51% versus FC Edmonton 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 45% | FC Edmonton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.50 xG and FC Edmonton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.760 / defence 1.202 | FC Edmonton attack 0.805 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.286. York United's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 York United games / 47 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 43% | Draw 25% | FC Edmonton 32%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | FC Edmonton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: York United 30% | FC Edmonton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 43% | Draw 25% | FC Edmonton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG York United 1.50 / FC Edmonton 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.760 / def 1.202 | FC Edmonton attack 0.805 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: York United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Edmonton xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs FC Edmonton kick off?
York United vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs FC Edmonton?
York United 3 - 2 FC Edmonton.
Where is York United vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs FC Edmonton part of?
York United vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives York United a 43% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both York United and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and FC Edmonton?
Record (5 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 3 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are York United and FC Edmonton in?
York United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.76) and FC Edmonton's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.81x) against York United's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.94
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
York United xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
FC Edmonton xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are York United and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for York United and 1.25 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United's recent record stands at 12W 17D 18L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 24L across 47 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for York United against 0.83 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, York United have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 1W 8D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
York United have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 8W 15D 24L in their last 47 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or FC Edmonton away?
York United's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.13 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
York United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Edmonton won 3-0 on 1 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
York United
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, York United have won 3, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when York United 3-1 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between York United and FC Edmonton?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 48%, FC Edmonton 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (York United) and 56% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 35% of games; FC Edmonton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of York United's games and 70% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of York United's recent games and 56% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out FC Edmonton 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat FC Edmonton 3-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.50 xG and FC Edmonton 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against FC Edmonton attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 43% | Draw 25% | FC Edmonton 32%, with York United to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 45%, FC Edmonton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.13 PPG, FC Edmonton 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.