York United 2-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 0.80 PPG clear of York United in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 69% and Cavalry FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 55% | Cavalry FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.14 xG and Cavalry FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.822 / defence 1.037 | Cavalry FC attack 1.018 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.081. Data: 30 York United games / 30 Cavalry FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 36% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 36%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Cavalry FC 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: York United 70% | Cavalry FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 36% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG York United 1.14 / Cavalry FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.822 / def 1.037 | Cavalry FC attack 1.018 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 2 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 36% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.02x) against York United's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.51
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
York United xG
Total xG
2.28
1.14
Cavalry FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for York United and 1.14 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 12D 9L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of York United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 4W 7D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.93 points per game from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 14W 8D 7L in their last 29 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.36 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.93 PPG.
Have York United or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
1
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 64%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (York United) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of York United's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of York United's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Cavalry FC 2-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.14 xG and Cavalry FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 36% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 36%, with York United to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 55%, Cavalry FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.