Vancouver FC 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Vancouver FC welcome Pacific FC to Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vancouver FC at 1.50 PPG versus Pacific FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vancouver FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Pacific FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 57% versus Pacific FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 61% | Pacific FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.47 xG and Pacific FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 1.161 / defence 0.948 | Pacific FC attack 0.913 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.013. Data: 34 Vancouver FC games / 34 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 34% | Pacific FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Pacific FC 5.26. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vancouver FC 70% | Pacific FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 34% | Pacific FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Vancouver FC 1.47 / Pacific FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 1.161 / def 0.948 | Pacific FC attack 0.913 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pacific FC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 47% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vancouver FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (1.16) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Vancouver FC's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
47%
2.11
34%
2.95
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.88
Pacific FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 0.88 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 10L across 28 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 6W 2D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.54 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 10L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vancouver FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 64%, Pacific FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vancouver FC and 64% for Pacific FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Vancouver FC's games and 57% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vancouver FC's matches and 64% of Pacific FC's.
Do Vancouver FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vancouver FC edge out Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 2-1 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.47 xG and Pacific FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 34% | Pacific FC 19%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 61%, Pacific FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.