Vancouver FC 0-1 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park Stadium plays host to Vancouver FC versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Vancouver FC 2W, HFX Wanderers FC 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 61% and HFX Wanderers FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 55% | HFX Wanderers FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.71 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / defence 1.085 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.995 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 28 HFX Wanderers FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 44% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | HFX Wanderers FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vancouver FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | HFX Wanderers FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 44% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Vancouver FC 1.71 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / def 1.085 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.995 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
HFX Wanderers FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 44% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (7 meetings): Vancouver FC 2W | Draws 1 | HFX Wanderers FC 4W.
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.97) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.99x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.68
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.37
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
5%
18.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.37 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 11W 18D 27L from 56 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
HFX Wanderers FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 22L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.25 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 8D 14L from 27 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HFX Wanderers FC's away record stands at 5W 6D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; HFX Wanderers FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 games (0.91 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 0.85 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
HFX Wanderers FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won 0-4 on 24 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
7
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 56%, HFX Wanderers FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vancouver FC) and 63% (HFX Wanderers FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 37% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vancouver FC's games and 56% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Vancouver FC's matches and 63% of HFX Wanderers FC's.
Do Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as HFX Wanderers FC defy the odds to beat Vancouver FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Vancouver FC 0-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.71 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.37 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 44% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 29%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, HFX Wanderers FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.91 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.