Vancouver FC 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Vancouver FC, 1.20 for Cavalry FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vancouver FC 0W, Cavalry FC 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 58% and Cavalry FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 63% | Cavalry FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.90 xG and Cavalry FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.814 / defence 1.156 | Cavalry FC attack 0.764 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.231. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Vancouver FC games / 43 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Cavalry FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vancouver FC 60% | Cavalry FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Vancouver FC 0.90 / Cavalry FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.814 / def 1.156 | Cavalry FC attack 0.764 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cavalry FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 28% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (2 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.76x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
28%
3.62
35%
2.88
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
1.98
1.09
Cavalry FC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.09 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 13W 10D 20L from 43 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 10L across 43 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.42 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 20W 13D 10L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 60%, Cavalry FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Vancouver FC) and 40% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Vancouver FC's games and 60% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 40% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 0-1 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.90 xG and Cavalry FC 1.09 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Cavalry FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.74, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 35% | Cavalry FC 38%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 63%, Cavalry FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.