Vancouver FC 0-5 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 02:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.84 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.872 / defence 1.075 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.023 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.322. Data: 4 Vancouver FC games / 32 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 18% | Draw 34% | Atlético Ottawa 48%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 5.56 | Draw 2.94 | Atlético Ottawa 2.08. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 18% | Draw 34% | Atlético Ottawa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Vancouver FC 0.84 / Atlético Ottawa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.872 / def 1.075 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.023 / def 0.999 | league avg home 0.964 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Atlético Ottawa xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Vancouver FC 0 - 5 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 18% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 48% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Atlético Ottawa away split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.87) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.02x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (4/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
18%
5.55
34%
2.93
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.46
Atlético Ottawa xG
5.55
18%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
23.78
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.46 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
Atlético Ottawa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Vancouver FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 0-5 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.84 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.46 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.46 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 18% | Draw 34% | Atlético Ottawa 48%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.