Valour 2-3 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Valour take on Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Pacific FC travel to Princess Auto Stadium to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 June 2024, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Princess Auto Stadium, Valour have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Valour) versus 1.40 (Pacific FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pacific FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Valour.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Pacific FC winning.
It is worth noting that Pacific FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 52% versus Pacific FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 38% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.04 xG and Pacific FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.878 / defence 1.006 | Pacific FC attack 0.826 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 0.965. Pacific FC's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Valour games / 37 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 40% | Pacific FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.78 | Draw 2.50 | Pacific FC 4.17. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | Pacific FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 40% | Pacific FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Valour 1.04 / Pacific FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.878 / def 1.006 | Pacific FC attack 0.826 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.487 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Pacific FC xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 2 - 3 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 36% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 24% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): Valour 0W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 3W.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.88) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.74
40%
2.50
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Valour xG
Total xG
1.84
0.80
Pacific FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Valour and 0.80 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Valour have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 15D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Pacific FC's form line: 23W 14D 19L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valour on 1.12 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 12W 5D 11L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 43%, Pacific FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Valour) and 54% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valour's recent matches and 54% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valour's recent games and 54% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Valour 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 2-3 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.04 xG and Pacific FC 0.80 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Pacific FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 36% | Draw 40% | Pacific FC 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 38%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.12 PPG, Pacific FC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.