Valour 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valour at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Valour welcome Forge to IG Field. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 July 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valour — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Valour have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 2W 0D 2L from 4 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valour carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Valour's 25% and Forge's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Forge in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valour 25% | Forge 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 25% | Forge 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.45 xG and Forge 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.174 / defence 0.929 | Forge attack 0.868 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 0.996. Data: 4 Valour games / 4 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 27% | Forge 21%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 4.76. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valour offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Valour 25% | Forge 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 27% | Forge 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Valour 1.45 / Forge 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.174 / def 0.929 | Forge attack 0.868 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.081 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Valour (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Forge xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Forge kick off?
Valour vs Forge kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Forge?
Valour 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is Valour vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Forge part of?
Valour vs Forge is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 52% chance of winning, Forge a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Valour and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Forge in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L. Forge (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (1.17) and Forge's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.74
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Valour xG
Total xG
2.25
0.80
Forge xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Valour and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Valour and 0.80 for Forge, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valour come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Valour, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valour carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Forge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Forge in 0%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games; Forge in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Early Season
Forge
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Forge in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Forge have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Valour or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Forge in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jun 2025, when Forge won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Forge have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Valour 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Forge see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valour 25% BTTS, Forge 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Valour and 25% for Forge.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Forge in 50%; Forge in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Valour's recent matches and 0% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valour's recent games and 25% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Forge tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Forge in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valour edge out Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Forge 1-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.45 xG and Forge 0.80 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Forge attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valour 52% | Draw 27% | Forge 21%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 25%, Forge 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Forge's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.