Pacific FC 3-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Valour at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, Valour 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Valour in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 61% versus Valour 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 61% | Valour 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Valour 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.313 / defence 1.208 | Valour attack 0.741 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.161. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Pacific FC games / 23 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 54% | Draw 25% | Valour 21%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Valour 4.76. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 80% | Valour 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 54% | Draw 25% | Valour 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Pacific FC 1.78 / Valour 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.313 / def 1.208 | Valour attack 0.741 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Valour xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Valour kick off?
Pacific FC vs Valour kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Pacific FC 3 - 2 Valour.
Where is Pacific FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Valour part of?
Pacific FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 54% chance of winning, Valour a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pacific FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Valour (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.02
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.04
Valour xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
28.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.04 for Valour, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 11W 6D 6L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 8W 4D 11L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Valour have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Valour away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Valour away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Valour in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Valour runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Valour?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 80%, Valour at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Pacific FC and 50% for Valour. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pacific FC's games and 50% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of Valour's.
Do Pacific FC and Valour tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valour in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Valour 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 3-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Valour 1.04 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.21 against Valour attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 54% | Draw 25% | Valour 21%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 61%, Valour 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.