Pacific FC 0-3 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Valour at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 0.90 PPG, Valour 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pacific FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Valour have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 3–2 with Pacific FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pacific FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Valour in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus Valour 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Valour 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.48 xG and Valour 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.809 / defence 0.824 | Valour attack 0.946 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.191. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Pacific FC games / 43 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 49% | Draw 29% | Valour 22%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 4.55. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pacific FC 40% | Valour 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 49% | Draw 29% | Valour 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Pacific FC 1.48 / Valour 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.809 / def 0.824 | Valour attack 0.946 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Valour xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Valour kick off?
Pacific FC vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Pacific FC 0 - 3 Valour.
Where is Pacific FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Valour part of?
Pacific FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 49% chance of winning, Valour a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pacific FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
Record (4 meetings): Pacific FC 4W | Draws 0 | Valour 0W.
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacific FC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.48
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
Valour xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.93 for Valour, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 17W 10D 16L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 9W 10D 24L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, Valour have gone 3W 4D 13L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 0.93 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 10D 24L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Valour away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Valour away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valour in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Valour runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Valour?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 45%, Valour 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Pacific FC) and 55% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Valour in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 60% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Pacific FC's recent games and 55% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Valour tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valour in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valour run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Pacific FC 0-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.48 xG and Valour 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Valour outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.82 against Valour attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 49% | Draw 29% | Valour 22%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Valour 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.