Pacific FC 3-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 September 2021 at 03:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 6W 1D 2L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 6W 1D 1L from 8 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pacific FC at 2.00 PPG versus Cavalry FC's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cavalry FC trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 50% versus Cavalry FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 62% | Cavalry FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.26 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.440 / defence 1.295 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.083. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — their λ of 1.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Pacific FC games / 16 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 67% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Pacific FC 1.26 / Cavalry FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.440 / def 1.295 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 03:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 3 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.44) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.86
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.41 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 9W 4D 3L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 9W 4D 3L from 16 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.94 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 6W 1D 1L from 8 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.94 PPG overall record — Cavalry FC travel well.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.19 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Cavalry FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 75%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Pacific FC and 50% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pacific FC's games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Cavalry FC 3-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.26 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.44 / defence 1.29 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 41%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 62%, Cavalry FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.94 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.