FC Edmonton 1-2 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates HFX Wanderers FC at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 03:00 UTC.
Form
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Edmonton's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Clarke Field this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.30 for HFX Wanderers FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Edmonton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, HFX Wanderers FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Edmonton lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with HFX Wanderers FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 61% versus HFX Wanderers FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | HFX Wanderers FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.08 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.945 / defence 1.328 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.732 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.116. Data: 38 FC Edmonton games / 37 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 35% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: FC Edmonton 70% | HFX Wanderers FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 35% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Edmonton 1.08 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.945 / def 1.328 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.732 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.08
HFX Wanderers FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 03:00 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
FC Edmonton 1 - 2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 35% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 0 | HFX Wanderers FC 3W.
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.94) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.73x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.40
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.08
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.08 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Edmonton come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 10D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.25 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Edmonton's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (1W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Current Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.36 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.71 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 57%, HFX Wanderers FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Edmonton) and 43% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 50% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as HFX Wanderers FC edge out FC Edmonton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat FC Edmonton 1-2 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.08 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 35% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, HFX Wanderers FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.