FC Edmonton 2-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Edmonton welcome Forge to IG Field. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Edmonton 0.00 PPG, Forge 0.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). FC Edmonton's 0% and Forge's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Forge 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.808 / defence 1.093 | Forge attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.914 / away 1.503. Data: 1 FC Edmonton games / 1 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 23% | Draw 27% | Forge 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 2.00. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 23% | Draw 27% | Forge 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Edmonton 0.85 / Forge 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.808 / def 1.093 | Forge attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.914 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Forge (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Forge xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Forge kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 2 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
FC Edmonton 2 - 0 Forge.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Forge part of?
FC Edmonton vs Forge is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 23% chance of winning, Forge a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Edmonton and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Forge (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.81) and Forge's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
23%
4.38
27%
3.65
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.25
1.40
Forge xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.40 for Forge, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Edmonton on 0.00 PPG, Forge on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Forge in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Early Season
Forge
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Forge have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Forge runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, Forge have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 0% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 0% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Forge tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Forge in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat Forge 2-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Forge 1.40 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Forge landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Forge attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 23% | Draw 27% | Forge 50%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC Edmonton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 0%, Forge 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 0.00 PPG, Forge 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Edmonton win broke the near-deadlock. FC Edmonton scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.