FC Edmonton 0-3 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 46%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 03:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Edmonton at Clarke Field this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 0.80 PPG clear of FC Edmonton in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Cavalry FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cavalry FC have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 61% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | Cavalry FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.24 xG and Cavalry FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.776 / defence 0.873 | Cavalry FC attack 0.879 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.075. FC Edmonton's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 FC Edmonton games / 32 Cavalry FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 46% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Cavalry FC 4.00. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Edmonton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Edmonton 70% | Cavalry FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 46% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Edmonton 1.24 / Cavalry FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.776 / def 0.873 | Cavalry FC attack 0.879 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cavalry FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
FC Edmonton 0 - 3 Cavalry FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 46% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 2 | Cavalry FC 3W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.78) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.88x) against FC Edmonton's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (33/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.40
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.06
0.82
Cavalry FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.82 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 10D 12L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 8W 3D 3L from 14 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cavalry FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.36 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.93 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
FC Edmonton
2
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 0, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 57%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Edmonton) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Edmonton's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 0-3 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.24 xG and Cavalry FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Edmonton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Cavalry FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 46% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 25%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Cavalry FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.