Cavalry FC 3-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC meet at ATCO Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 July 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of HFX Wanderers FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 55% versus HFX Wanderers FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 50% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.17 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.211 / defence 0.784 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.303. HFX Wanderers FC's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Cavalry FC games / 42 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | HFX Wanderers FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | HFX Wanderers FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jul 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Cavalry FC 1.17 / HFX Wanderers FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.211 / def 0.784 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.835 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
HFX Wanderers FC xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 15 July 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC 3 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 43% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.21) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.83x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.32
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.85
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.85 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 12D 9L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (13W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.84 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
1
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 5, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
HFX Wanderers FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 53%, HFX Wanderers FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cavalry FC) and 47% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 26% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 47% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 47% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of HFX Wanderers FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.17 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. HFX Wanderers FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 27%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, HFX Wanderers FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.