Atlético Ottawa 1-4 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atlético Ottawa 1.50 PPG, Pacific FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 52% versus Pacific FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 41% | Pacific FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 0.77 xG and Pacific FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.953 / defence 1.010 | Pacific FC attack 0.992 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 0.807 / away 1.107. Data: 31 Atlético Ottawa games / 31 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 21% | Draw 39% | Pacific FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 4.76 | Draw 2.56 | Pacific FC 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Pacific FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 21% | Draw 39% | Pacific FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Atlético Ottawa 0.77 / Pacific FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.953 / def 1.010 | Pacific FC attack 0.992 / def 1.006 | league avg home 0.807 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Pacific FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 4 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 21% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 39% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.95) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
21%
4.66
39%
2.55
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
1.88
1.11
Pacific FC xG
4.66
21%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 16.9 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.11 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 19D 20L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Pacific FC's form line: 27W 14D 18L from 59 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.34 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 12L from 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.44 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 20W 19D 20L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.20 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 57%, Pacific FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atlético Ottawa) and 40% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 33%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacific FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 40% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 40% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Atlético Ottawa 1-4 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 0.77 xG and Pacific FC 1.11 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 21% | Draw 39% | Pacific FC 39%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 41%, Pacific FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.34 PPG, Pacific FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.