Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 June 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atlético Ottawa 1.30 PPG, Pacific FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atlético Ottawa 57% and Pacific FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | Pacific FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 0.91 xG and Pacific FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.846 / defence 1.203 | Pacific FC attack 0.739 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.195. Data: 36 Atlético Ottawa games / 37 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 31% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Pacific FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 39% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Pacific FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 31% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Atlético Ottawa 0.91 / Pacific FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.846 / def 1.203 | Pacific FC attack 0.739 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pacific FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 5 June 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 31% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.85) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
31%
3.27
31%
3.23
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
1.97
1.06
Pacific FC xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.06 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 8D 14L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Pacific FC's form line: 14W 5D 9L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 6W 3D 5L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.00 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 64%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atlético Ottawa) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 36%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 50% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 2-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 0.91 xG and Pacific FC 1.06 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Pacific FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 31% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 38%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Pacific FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.