Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Atlético Ottawa, 1 for Pacific FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 53% versus Pacific FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 47% | Pacific FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.43 xG and Pacific FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.042 / defence 1.053 | Pacific FC attack 0.798 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.176. Data: 51 Atlético Ottawa games / 51 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 46% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Pacific FC 4.00. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Pacific FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 46% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.43 / Pacific FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.042 / def 1.053 | Pacific FC attack 0.798 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pacific FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 46% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 2W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (1.04) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.37
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.42
0.99
Pacific FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.99 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 20W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 19W 12D 20L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.45 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 20W 14D 17L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.48 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 52%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atlético Ottawa) and 52% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 52% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.43 xG and Pacific FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Pacific FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 46% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 25%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 47%, Pacific FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.45 PPG, Pacific FC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.