Atlético Ottawa 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 48% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.31 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.072 / defence 0.905 | Cavalry FC attack 1.235 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.303. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Atlético Ottawa games / 44 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.31 / Cavalry FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.072 / def 0.905 | Cavalry FC attack 1.235 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.24x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.78
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.77
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.46 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 19W 14D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 21W 12D 13L from 46 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.63 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 7W 8D 8L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 21W 12D 13L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.39 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, Cavalry FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Atlético Ottawa) and 52% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 35% of games; Cavalry FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 56% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.31 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Cavalry FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 40%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.54 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.