Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Arena BRB Mané Garrincha to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's home record at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palmeiras (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Vasco DA Gama against 1.70 for Palmeiras. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasco DA Gama lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vasco DA Gama — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 51% versus Palmeiras 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 41% | Palmeiras 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.32 xG and Palmeiras 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.188 / defence 1.105 | Palmeiras attack 1.102 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.017. Data: 63 Vasco DA Gama games / 64 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 35%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Palmeiras 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.32 / Palmeiras 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.188 / def 1.105 | Palmeiras attack 1.102 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Palmeiras xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.19x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.10x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.76
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.56
1.24
Palmeiras xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.24 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 22W 14D 27L from 63 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 34W 15D 14L across 63 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 16W 5D 10L from 31 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 11W 12D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palmeiras's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.67 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 22W 14D 27L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 34W 15D 14L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Palmeiras away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.71 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 48%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vasco DA Gama) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Palmeiras in 39%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.32 xG and Palmeiras 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 39% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 35%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 41%, Palmeiras 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.