Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Estádio Luso-Brasileiro to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 June 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 0.71 xG and Cuiaba 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.612 / defence 1.446 | Cuiaba attack 0.930 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.060. Vasco DA Gama's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Vasco DA Gama games / 49 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 18% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 54%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 1.85. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Luso-Brasileiro • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jun 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 18% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Vasco DA Gama 0.71 / Cuiaba 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.612 / def 1.446 | Cuiaba attack 0.930 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cuiaba xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 27 June 2023 at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 18% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cuiaba away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.61) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.93x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
18%
5.52
28%
3.52
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.14
1.43
Cuiaba xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
4%
22.93
26%
3.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.8 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.43 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Cuiaba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 0.71 xG and Cuiaba 1.43 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.61 / defence 1.45 against Cuiaba attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 18% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 54%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.