Sport Recife 0-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sport Recife take on Sao Paulo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host Sao Paulo at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 August 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sport Recife — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sport Recife at 1.10 PPG versus Sao Paulo's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 25% | Sao Paulo 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 19% | Sao Paulo 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.70 xG and Sao Paulo 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.585 / defence 0.904 | Sao Paulo attack 0.774 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 0.886 / away 1.079. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.585 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sao Paulo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sport Recife games / 16 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Sao Paulo 33%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Sao Paulo 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.46 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 27% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 14% | Sao Paulo 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Sao Paulo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Sport Recife 0.70 / Sao Paulo 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.585 / def 0.904 | Sao Paulo attack 0.774 / def 1.355 | league avg home 0.886 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sao Paulo xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo part of?
Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 30% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Sport Recife and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Sao Paulo in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.58) and Sao Paulo's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
37%
2.68
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.46
0.76
Sao Paulo xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.74
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.3 | 17.6 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.76 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sport Recife come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 6D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 0.94 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sport Recife's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Sao Paulo away?
Sao Paulo's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.86 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Sport Recife 2-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 14% BTTS, Sao Paulo 43%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Sport Recife and 29% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 71% of games; Sao Paulo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 43% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Sport Recife's recent games and 29% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.70 xG and Sao Paulo 0.76 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.58 / defence 0.90 against Sao Paulo attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Sao Paulo 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sao Paulo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 19%, Sao Paulo 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.94 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.