Sport Recife 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho plays host to Sport Recife versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Internacional's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Internacional's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sport Recife 0W, Internacional 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.91 xG and Internacional 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.561 / defence 1.457 | Internacional attack 1.071 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 0.826. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.561 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Sport Recife games / 47 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 25% | Draw 32% | Internacional 43%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 25% | Draw 32% | Internacional 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Sport Recife 0.91 / Internacional 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.561 / def 1.457 | Internacional attack 1.071 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.372 / away 0.826 • Poisson stance: Internacional (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Internacional xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Internacional kick off?
Sport Recife vs Internacional kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Sport Recife 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Sport Recife vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Internacional part of?
Sport Recife vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 25% chance of winning, Internacional a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sport Recife and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Internacional in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Internacional away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (1.07x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
25%
4.08
32%
3.10
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.20
1.29
Internacional xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.29 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Internacional?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Internacional 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sport Recife and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 10, as Sport Recife and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.91 xG and Internacional 1.29 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.56 / defence 1.46 against Internacional attack 1.07 / defence 1.19, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 25% | Draw 32% | Internacional 43%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.