Santos vs Palmeiras – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estadio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Santos) versus 1.80 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Palmeiras have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Santos.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (62 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (62 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 55% versus Palmeiras 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 53% | Palmeiras 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.09 xG and Palmeiras 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.908 / defence 1.173 | Palmeiras attack 1.402 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Santos games / 63 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 19% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 55%. Fair-value odds: Santos 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Santos 50% | Palmeiras 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 19% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Santos 1.09 / Palmeiras 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.908 / def 1.173 | Palmeiras attack 1.402 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Palmeiras xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Palmeiras kick off?
Santos vs Palmeiras is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Palmeiras part of?
Santos vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 19% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Santos and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): Santos 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 5W.
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
19%
5.23
26%
3.82
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Santos xG
Total xG
3.01
1.92
Palmeiras xG
5.23
19%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
3%
35.76
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Santos and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Santos and 1.92 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos's recent record stands at 19W 19D 24L from 62 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 38W 13D 11L across 62 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santos have managed 13W 10D 9L from 32 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 18W 6D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.79 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 38W 13D 11L in their last 62 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.53 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Santos or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Palmeiras runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santos's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Santos
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 50%, Palmeiras 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Santos) and 62% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Santos's games and 62% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santos vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Santos's recent games and 62% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.