Remo 1-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Remo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Banpará Baenão plays host to Remo versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sao Paulo (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.27 xG and Sao Paulo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.793 / defence 1.178 | Sao Paulo attack 0.954 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.126. Remo's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Remo games / 55 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 37% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 36%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Banpará Baenão • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 37% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Remo 1.27 / Sao Paulo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.793 / def 1.178 | Sao Paulo attack 0.954 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Remo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sao Paulo xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Remo vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Sao Paulo?
Remo 1 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Remo vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What competition is Remo vs Sao Paulo part of?
Remo vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 37% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Remo and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Remo and Sao Paulo in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sao Paulo away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Remo's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.95x) against Remo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.73
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Remo xG
Total xG
2.54
1.26
Sao Paulo xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Remo and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Remo and 1.26 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Remo
0
Draws
0
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Sao Paulo?
From 1 meetings on record, Remo have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Remo 1-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Sao Paulo?
Remo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Remo edge out Sao Paulo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Sao Paulo 1-0 at Estádio Banpará Baenão, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.27 xG and Sao Paulo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Sao Paulo attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 37% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 36%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.