Remo 4-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Remo and Bahia meet at Mangueirão in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 0.93 xG and Bahia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.774 / defence 1.272 | Bahia attack 0.967 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.101. Remo's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Remo games / 44 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47%. Fair-value odds: Remo 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 2.13. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Remo 0.93 / Bahia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.774 / def 1.272 | Bahia attack 0.967 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Bahia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bahia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Bahia kick off?
Remo vs Bahia kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Bahia?
Remo 4 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Remo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Bahia part of?
Remo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 26% chance of winning, Bahia a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Remo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Remo and Bahia in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bahia away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.77) and Bahia's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.97x) against Remo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
26%
3.90
28%
3.61
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Remo xG
Total xG
2.28
1.35
Bahia xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.14
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Remo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Remo and 1.35 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Remo
0
Draws
0
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Bahia?
From 1 meetings on record, Remo have won 1, Bahia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Remo 4-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Bahia?
Remo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Remo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Bahia 4-1 at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 0.93 xG and Bahia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Remo beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against Bahia attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Remo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.