Palmeiras 0-0 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 82%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Vitoria at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 19 November 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitoria stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vitoria's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Palmeiras, 1 for Vitoria and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Vitoria in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 44% versus Vitoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 46% | Vitoria 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.94 xG and Vitoria 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.484 / defence 0.774 | Vitoria attack 0.912 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.001. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Palmeiras games / 71 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 82% | Draw 12% | Vitoria 6%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.22 | Draw 8.33 | Vitoria 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (82%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 50% | Vitoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Nov 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 82% | Draw 12% | Vitoria 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 2.94 / Vitoria 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.484 / def 0.774 | Vitoria attack 0.912 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Vitoria xG
48%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Vitoria kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 19 November 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Palmeiras 0 - 0 Vitoria.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vitoria part of?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 82% chance of winning, Vitoria a 6% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | Vitoria 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Vitoria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.94. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 4-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
82%
1.21
12%
8.65
6%
16.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
4 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.65
0.71
Vitoria xG
1.21
82%
Home win
8.65
12%
Draw
16.47
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
5%
18.97
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.71 for Vitoria, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 43W 12D 16L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Vitoria's form line: 21W 19D 31L from 71 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.20 PPG from 35 outings (24W 5D 6L).
On the road, Vitoria have gone 6W 10D 19L from 35 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.04 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 12D 16L in their last 71 games (1.99 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 21W 19D 31L in their last 71 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vitoria away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.20 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Vitoria in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Vitoria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Palmeiras) and 46% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Vitoria in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Vitoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 54% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Palmeiras's recent games and 46% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vitoria tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vitoria in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palmeiras's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Vitoria finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.94 xG and Vitoria 0.71 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.48 / defence 0.77 against Vitoria attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 82% | Draw 12% | Vitoria 6%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 46%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitoria's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.