Palmeiras 0-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Palmeiras welcome Sao Paulo to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sao Paulo's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Palmeiras, 1 for Sao Paulo and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Sao Paulo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 52% | Sao Paulo 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.44 xG and Sao Paulo 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.242 / defence 0.852 | Sao Paulo attack 1.121 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Data: 69 Palmeiras games / 68 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 4.35. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Sao Paulo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Palmeiras 1.44 / Sao Paulo 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.242 / def 0.852 | Sao Paulo attack 1.121 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sao Paulo xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras 0 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo part of?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 50% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Palmeiras and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.73
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.33
0.89
Sao Paulo xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.89 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras come into this having played 68 games, going 39W 16D 13L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.29 PPG from 68 outings (20W 28D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palmeiras's home form reads 21W 6D 7L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 1.03 points per game from 34 outings (7W 14D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 39W 16D 13L in their last 68 games (1.96 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 20W 28D 20L in their last 68 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Sao Paulo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.03 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 7, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 53%, Sao Paulo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Palmeiras) and 24% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 50% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Palmeiras's recent games and 24% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palmeiras's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.44 xG and Sao Paulo 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Sao Paulo attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 52%, Sao Paulo 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.