Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 59%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palmeiras vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Fluminense travel to Arena Barueri to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Arena Barueri this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Barueri. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Arena Barueri than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Fluminense 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.79 xG and Fluminense 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.311 / defence 0.841 | Fluminense attack 0.930 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.147. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Palmeiras games / 41 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 19%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Fluminense 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Palmeiras 1.79 / Fluminense 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.311 / def 0.841 | Fluminense attack 0.930 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 59% chance of winning, Fluminense a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Record (8 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 3 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.31x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.36
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.69
0.90
Fluminense xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
32.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.90 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 45W 14D 17L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 31W 17D 28L from 76 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.08 PPG from 38 outings (24W 7D 7L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 9W 8D 21L from 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 29% of games; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2-1 at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.79 xG and Fluminense 0.90 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.31 / defence 0.84 against Fluminense attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 59% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 19%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.