Mirassol 2-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Mirassol welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Mirassol) versus 1.70 (Cruzeiro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mirassol, 1 for Cruzeiro and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mirassol in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Cruzeiro 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Cruzeiro 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.98 xG and Cruzeiro 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.186 / defence 0.929 | Cruzeiro attack 0.852 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.111. Data: 40 Mirassol games / 40 Cruzeiro games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 16%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Cruzeiro 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 60% | Cruzeiro 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Mirassol 1.98 / Cruzeiro 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.186 / def 0.929 | Cruzeiro attack 0.852 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cruzeiro xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Mirassol vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Mirassol 2 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro part of?
Mirassol vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 63% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mirassol and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Cruzeiro in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.71
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.86
0.88
Cruzeiro xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
45.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.88 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mirassol come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 13D 7L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (19W 13D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mirassol on 1.76 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mirassol's home form reads 12W 7D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (6W 9D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cruzeiro's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.45 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 19W 13D 6L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Cruzeiro away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Mirassol's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mirassol
2
Draws
2
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Cruzeiro 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Mirassol) and 26% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 47%; Cruzeiro in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Mirassol's recent matches and 32% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Mirassol's recent games and 26% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Cruzeiro finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.98 xG and Cruzeiro 0.88 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.19 / defence 0.93 against Cruzeiro attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Cruzeiro 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.76 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.