Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Coritiba at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Mirassol have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.73 xG and Coritiba 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.168 / defence 1.083 | Coritiba attack 1.194 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.137. Data: 43 Mirassol games / 6 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 33%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Coritiba 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Mirassol 1.73 / Coritiba 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.168 / def 1.083 | Coritiba attack 1.194 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Coritiba xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Coritiba kick off?
Mirassol vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Mirassol 0 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Mirassol vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Coritiba part of?
Mirassol vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 44% chance of winning, Coritiba a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mirassol and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Coritiba in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Mirassol home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Coritiba's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.30
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.20
1.47
Coritiba xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.47 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Coritiba?
From 1 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Mirassol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Mirassol 0-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.73 xG and Coritiba 1.47 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Coritiba attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 44% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 33%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.