Mirassol vs Atletico-MG – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico-MG (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mirassol face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico-MG (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Atletico-MG are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Atletico-MG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 61% versus Atletico-MG 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 48% | Atletico-MG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.17 xG and Atletico-MG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.977 / defence 1.167 | Atletico-MG attack 0.940 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 62 Mirassol games / 62 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 31% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 37%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico-MG 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico-MG at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Atletico-MG 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 31% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Mirassol 1.17 / Atletico-MG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.977 / def 1.167 | Atletico-MG attack 0.940 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atletico-MG xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 31% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 2W.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.98x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.94x) against Mirassol's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.46
1.29
Atletico-MG xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.29 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol's recent record stands at 24W 20D 18L from 62 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 22L across 62 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Mirassol against 1.35 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 17W 11D 4L from 32 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 7W 6D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico-MG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 18L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Atletico-MG away?
Mirassol's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.94 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 72%, Atletico-MG 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 34% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Mirassol's recent matches and 31% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 34% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.