Juventude 2-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 June 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juventude, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 55% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.91 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.951 / defence 0.878 | Flamengo attack 1.306 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.092. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Juventude games / 49 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 26% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 43%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Flamengo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 70% | Flamengo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 26% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Juventude 0.91 / Flamengo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.951 / def 0.878 | Flamengo attack 1.306 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Flamengo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Flamengo kick off?
Juventude vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Juventude 2 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Juventude vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Flamengo part of?
Juventude vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 26% chance of winning, Flamengo a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juventude and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
Record (4 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in?
Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.95x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
26%
3.90
31%
3.19
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.16
1.25
Flamengo xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juventude and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Juventude and 1.25 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude come into this having played 38 games, going 3W 13D 22L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.74 PPG from 38 outings (19W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Juventude's home form reads 2W 9D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.47 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 games (0.58 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.79 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Juventude or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Flamengo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 63%, Flamengo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventude) and 63% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude have failed to score in 26% of games; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Juventude's games and 58% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Juventude's matches and 63% of Flamengo's.
Do Juventude and Flamengo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Flamengo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Flamengo 2-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.91 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 0.73, drawn from 10/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 26% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 43%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 50%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Juventude winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.