Juventude 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Corinthians at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Corinthians — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Juventude) versus 1.70 (Corinthians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventude, 0 for Corinthians and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 51% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 35% | Corinthians 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.01 xG and Corinthians 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.856 / defence 0.964 | Corinthians attack 0.770 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.911. Data: 37 Juventude games / 37 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Corinthians 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Corinthians's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 50% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Juventude 1.01 / Corinthians 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.856 / def 0.964 | Corinthians attack 0.770 / def 1.199 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Juventude (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Corinthians xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Corinthians kick off?
Juventude vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Corinthians?
Juventude 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Juventude vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Corinthians part of?
Juventude vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 43% chance of winning, Corinthians a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Juventude and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Corinthians 0W.
What form are Juventude and Corinthians in?
Juventude (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juventude's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
43%
2.34
33%
2.99
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.69
0.68
Corinthians xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Juventude and 0.68 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude's recent record stands at 10W 13D 14L from 37 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 10L across 37 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.16 PPG, Corinthians on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Corinthians's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.08 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 15W 12D 10L in their last 37 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Corinthians away?
Juventude's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.67 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Juventude or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventude's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
4
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Corinthians?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Corinthians have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Corinthians 1-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Corinthians?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 39%, Corinthians 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Juventude and 28% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Corinthians in 33%; Corinthians in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Juventude's recent matches and 39% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 28% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Corinthians 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.01 xG and Corinthians 0.68 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Corinthians attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Corinthians 24%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 35%, Corinthians 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Corinthians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.16 PPG, Corinthians 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.