Juventude 1-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Juventude welcome Avai to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Avai stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Avai have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Juventude) versus 0.50 (Avai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juventude, 0 for Avai and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Juventude winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Avai trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Avai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Avai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.36 xG and Avai 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.806 / defence 1.259 | Avai attack 0.674 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.882. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Juventude games / 24 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 28% | Avai 21%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Avai 4.76. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 50% | Avai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 28% | Avai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventude 1.36 / Avai 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.806 / def 1.259 | Avai attack 0.674 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.882 • Poisson stance: Juventude (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Avai xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Avai kick off?
Juventude vs Avai kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Avai?
Juventude 1 - 1 Avai.
Where is Juventude vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Avai part of?
Juventude vs Avai is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 51% chance of winning, Avai a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventude and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | Avai 0W.
What form are Juventude and Avai in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Avai (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventude's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Avai's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.57
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.11
0.75
Avai xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Juventude and 0.75 for Avai, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Avai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventude come into this having played 24 games, going 3W 8D 13L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Avai sit at 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 0.71 PPG, Avai on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventude's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Avai have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 0.96 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Avai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Avai in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 8D 13L in their last 24 games (0.71 PPG), while Avai have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Avai away?
Juventude's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.83 PPG; Avai away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Avai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Juventude
1
Draws
0
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Avai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2022, when Juventude 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Avai?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Avai 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juventude) and 50% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Juventude have failed to score in 33% of games; Avai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juventude's recent matches and 42% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Avai tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Avai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Avai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Avai finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.36 xG and Avai 0.75 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.81 / defence 1.26 against Avai attack 0.67 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 51% | Draw 28% | Avai 21%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 50%, Avai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Avai's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 0.71 PPG, Avai 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.