Gremio 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gremio (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gremio face Fluminense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Fluminense meet at Estádio Francisco Stédile in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio's home record at Estádio Francisco Stédile: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Gremio's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Fluminense's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Gremio have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Fluminense managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Gremio winning.
The historical record gives Gremio a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus Fluminense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 63% | Fluminense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.828 / defence 1.018 | Fluminense attack 0.744 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.079. Data: 48 Gremio games / 50 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 44% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 22%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Fluminense 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Francisco Stédile • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 44% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Gremio 1.26 / Fluminense 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.828 / def 1.018 | Fluminense attack 0.744 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Gremio (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fluminense xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Fluminense kick off?
Gremio vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Gremio 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Gremio vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What competition is Gremio vs Fluminense part of?
Gremio vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gremio and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Gremio 4W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in?
Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.74x) against Gremio's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 48/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.98
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Fluminense xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gremio and 0.82 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 21W 5D 12L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Gremio against 1.47 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Fluminense away?
Gremio's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.32 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Gremio or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Fluminense?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Fluminense 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 32% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Fluminense tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Francisco Stédile, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Fluminense attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 44% | Draw 34% | Fluminense 22%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 63%, Fluminense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.79 PPG, Fluminense 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.