Goias 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.40 xG and Cuiaba 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.921 / defence 1.130 | Cuiaba attack 0.911 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.990. Data: 13 Goias games / 51 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 45% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 27%. Fair-value odds: Goias 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 3.70. Goias hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Goias as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Goias if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 45% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Goias 1.40 / Cuiaba 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.921 / def 1.130 | Cuiaba attack 0.911 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Goias (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cuiaba xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Cuiaba kick off?
Goias vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Cuiaba?
Goias 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Goias vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Cuiaba part of?
Goias vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 45% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Goias and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Cuiaba in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Cuiaba away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.91x) against Goias's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.51
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Goias xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
Cuiaba xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Goias and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Goias and 1.02 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Goias
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2023, when Cuiaba 1-1 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Cuiaba?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Goias edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.40 xG and Cuiaba 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Cuiaba attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 45% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 27%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.