Fortaleza EC 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Cuiaba at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 31 August 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 6W 2D 0L from 8 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Fortaleza EC) versus 1.60 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 59% versus Cuiaba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 47% | Cuiaba 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.22 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.382 / defence 0.930 | Cuiaba attack 0.856 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 0.871 / away 1.075. Fortaleza EC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Fortaleza EC games / 17 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Cuiaba 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 50% | Cuiaba 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Aug 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.22 / Cuiaba 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.382 / def 0.930 | Cuiaba attack 0.856 / def 1.012 | league avg home 0.871 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cuiaba xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 31 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 44% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.38) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.22
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.07
0.86
Cuiaba xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.86 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 5D 3L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 4W 8D 5L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.50 PPG from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 2W 5D 1L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 4W 8D 5L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Cuiaba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.50 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Cuiaba have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 50%, Cuiaba 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Fortaleza EC and 25% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cuiaba in 50%; Cuiaba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 38% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 25% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.22 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.38 / defence 0.93 against Cuiaba attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 44% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 25%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 47%, Cuiaba 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.