Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas to take on Fortaleza EC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortaleza EC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Coritiba and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Coritiba in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 41% versus Coritiba 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 38% | Coritiba 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 2.06 xG and Coritiba 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.017 / defence 1.002 | Coritiba attack 1.039 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 0.936. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Fortaleza EC games / 58 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 61% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Coritiba 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 61% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortaleza EC 2.06 / Coritiba 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.017 / def 1.002 | Coritiba attack 1.039 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.358 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Coritiba xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 61% chance of winning, Coritiba a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.45
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
3.03
0.97
Coritiba xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
2%
48.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.97 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 15D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 0.97 PPG from 58 outings (15W 11D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.34 points per game from 29 outings (2W 4D 23L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.02 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 15W 11D 32L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Coritiba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.62 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.34 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Coritiba in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortaleza EC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Fortaleza EC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Coritiba?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 34%, Coritiba 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Fortaleza EC) and 66% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 38% of games; Coritiba in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 62% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 66% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Coritiba tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Coritiba 3-1 at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 2.06 xG and Coritiba 0.97 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Coritiba attack 1.04 / defence 1.49, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 61% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 16%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 38%, Coritiba 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.