Fortaleza EC 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Goianiense make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Goianiense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Atletico Goianiense's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Fortaleza EC's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortaleza EC lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortaleza EC — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 44% versus Atletico Goianiense 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 42% | Atletico Goianiense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.61 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.986 / defence 0.867 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.921 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.012. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Fortaleza EC games / 73 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 25% | Atletico Goianiense 19%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Atletico Goianiense 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 30% | Atletico Goianiense 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 25% | Atletico Goianiense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.61 / Atletico Goianiense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.986 / def 0.867 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.921 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atletico Goianiense xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 56% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (3 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.92x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.02
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.42
0.81
Atletico Goianiense xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
26.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.81 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 73 games, going 30W 16D 27L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Atletico Goianiense sit at 1.18 PPG from 73 outings (21W 23D 29L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.18 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 17W 11D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Goianiense have taken 1.00 points per game from 36 outings (9W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 16D 27L in their last 73 games (1.45 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 21W 23D 29L in their last 73 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.72 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Goianiense won 0-3 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
2
Draws
2
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 3-1 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 33%, Atletico Goianiense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fortaleza EC) and 44% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 33% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 44% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.61 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 25% | Atletico Goianiense 19%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, Atletico Goianiense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.45 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.