Fluminense 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fluminense at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Fluminense welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.73 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.140 / defence 0.868 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.984 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.119. Data: 41 Fluminense games / 3 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Vasco DA Gama 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Fluminense 1.73 / Vasco DA Gama 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.140 / def 0.868 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.984 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Vasco DA Gama xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 56% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fluminense home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.14x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.22
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.69
0.95
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.95 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Fluminense's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Fluminense
1
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 4, as Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.73 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.95 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.