Fluminense 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Santos have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Fluminense against 1.80 for Santos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fluminense 1W, Santos 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Santos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Santos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 32% | Santos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.31 xG and Santos 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.037 / defence 0.929 | Santos attack 0.950 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.880. Data: 38 Fluminense games / 38 Santos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 29% | Santos 22%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Santos 4.55. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 40% | Santos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 49% | Draw 29% | Santos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Fluminense 1.31 / Santos 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.037 / def 0.929 | Santos attack 0.950 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.880 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Santos xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Santos kick off?
Fluminense vs Santos kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Fluminense 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Fluminense vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Santos part of?
Fluminense vs Santos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 49% chance of winning, Santos a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fluminense and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Santos 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Santos in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.04) and Santos's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.95x) against Fluminense's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.50
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.09
0.78
Santos xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.78 for Santos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 9D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fluminense against 1.32 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Santos in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Santos in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Santos away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Santos in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fluminense
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Santos?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Santos see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 42%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Fluminense and 37% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Santos in 32%; Santos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fluminense's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Fluminense's recent games and 37% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fluminense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 1, as Fluminense and Santos drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.31 xG and Santos 0.78 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Santos attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 49% | Draw 29% | Santos 22%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Santos 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.42 PPG, Santos 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.