Fluminense 1-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024, 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cruzeiro away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fluminense are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Fluminense's 30% rate and Cruzeiro's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fluminense, 1 for Cruzeiro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Cruzeiro 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 37% | Cruzeiro 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.93 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.772 / defence 0.846 | Cruzeiro attack 0.889 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 0.987. Fluminense's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Fluminense games / 66 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 38% | Draw 34% | Cruzeiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Cruzeiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cruzeiro's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 30% | Cruzeiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 38% | Draw 34% | Cruzeiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Fluminense 0.93 / Cruzeiro 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.772 / def 0.846 | Cruzeiro attack 0.889 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.348 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Fluminense vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Cruzeiro part of?
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 38% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fluminense and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cruzeiro?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Cruzeiro in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.77) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.93
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.68
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.74 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 14D 28L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cruzeiro's form line: 23W 21D 21L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.28 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.88 PPG from 32 outings (17W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 10W 10D 12L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.06 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 23W 14D 28L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 23W 21D 21L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Cruzeiro away?
Fluminense's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.88 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 1 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fluminense's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Cruzeiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2026, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Cruzeiro?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Cruzeiro 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fluminense) and 34% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 47%; Cruzeiro in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 22% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fluminense's recent games and 34% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Cruzeiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cruzeiro 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.93 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.77 / defence 0.85 against Cruzeiro attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 38% | Draw 34% | Cruzeiro 28%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 37%, Cruzeiro 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.28 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.