Fluminense 1-2 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Fluminense versus Atletico Goianiense in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 16 June 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Atletico Goianiense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atletico Goianiense away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fluminense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Atletico Goianiense in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Atletico Goianiense, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
It is worth noting that Atletico Goianiense have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Atletico Goianiense 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 42% | Atletico Goianiense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.31 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.157 / defence 1.119 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.772 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.140. Data: 46 Fluminense games / 8 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 27%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Goianiense 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 60% | Atletico Goianiense 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Fluminense 1.31 / Atletico Goianiense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.157 / def 1.119 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.772 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atletico Goianiense xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Fluminense 1 - 2 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 43% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (4 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.77x) against Fluminense's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.39
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.30
0.98
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.98 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense's recent record stands at 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 18L across 38 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. Atletico Goianiense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 1.03 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Goianiense in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Fluminense's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.26 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atletico Goianiense go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fluminense
1
Draws
5
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 0, Atletico Goianiense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, Atletico Goianiense 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fluminense) and 42% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Atletico Goianiense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Fluminense's games and 68% of Atletico Goianiense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fluminense's recent games and 42% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Goianiense defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Fluminense 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.31 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 43% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 27%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Atletico Goianiense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, Atletico Goianiense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Atletico Goianiense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.