Flamengo 3-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Flamengo welcome Santos to Estádio do Maracanã. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo's home record at Estádio do Maracanã: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Santos — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 4, Santos 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2025, ended 0–1 with Santos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Santos trading profile (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 39% versus Santos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 45% | Santos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.39 xG and Santos 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.408 / defence 0.754 | Santos attack 0.926 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 0.965. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Flamengo games / 31 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 75% | Draw 16% | Santos 9%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Santos 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 40% | Santos 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 75% | Draw 16% | Santos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 45% | xG Flamengo 2.39 / Santos 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.408 / def 0.754 | Santos attack 0.926 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.375 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Santos xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Santos kick off?
Flamengo vs Santos kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Flamengo 3 - 2 Santos.
Where is Flamengo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Santos part of?
Flamengo vs Santos is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 75% chance of winning, Santos a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Flamengo and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
Record (7 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 0 | Santos 3W.
What form are Flamengo and Santos in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Santos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.41x the league average against Santos's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
75%
1.32
16%
6.31
9%
11.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.06
0.68
Santos xG
1.32
75%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
11.55
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
9%
10.88
Win to Nil
38%
2.60
1%
125.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.68 for Santos, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 19W 8D 4L from 31 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 14L across 31 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 11W 5D 0L from 16 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Santos in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 19W 8D 4L in their last 31 games (2.10 PPG), while Santos have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Santos away?
Flamengo's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.38 PPG; Santos away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Santos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Flamengo
0
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Santos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Santos?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 31%, Santos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Flamengo) and 56% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Santos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Flamengo's recent games and 56% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Santos tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Santos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Santos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Santos 3-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.39 xG and Santos 0.68 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Santos outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.41 / defence 0.75 against Santos attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 75% | Draw 16% | Santos 9%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 45%, Santos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.