Cuiaba 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host RB Bragantino at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 1.70 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 0, RB Bragantino 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 22% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 46% versus RB Bragantino 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 39% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.94 xG and RB Bragantino 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / defence 1.281 | RB Bragantino attack 1.244 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 0.991. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. RB Bragantino have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Cuiaba games / 29 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 21% | Draw 28% | RB Bragantino 51%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | RB Bragantino 1.96. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Cuiaba 50% | RB Bragantino 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 21% | Draw 28% | RB Bragantino 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Cuiaba 0.94 / RB Bragantino 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.818 / def 1.281 | RB Bragantino attack 1.244 / def 1.212 | league avg home 0.946 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.58
RB Bragantino xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino part of?
Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 21% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cuiaba and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
21%
4.76
28%
3.57
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.52
1.58
RB Bragantino xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.58 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 14D 7L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (11W 13D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.25 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cuiaba's home form reads 4W 4D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.77 points per game from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 68%.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 7W 14D 7L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 11W 13D 4L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.23 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cuiaba's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
5
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 46%, RB Bragantino 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cuiaba) and 54% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Cuiaba's games and 69% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cuiaba's recent games and 54% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.94 xG and RB Bragantino 1.58 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against RB Bragantino attack 1.24 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 21% | Draw 28% | RB Bragantino 51%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 39%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.25 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.