Cuiaba 2-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Fluminense travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 September 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 3W 3D 4L at Arena Pantanal — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Pantanal this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 1.80 PPG versus Fluminense's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 0, Fluminense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 50% versus Fluminense 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Fluminense 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.17 xG and Fluminense 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.983 / defence 1.270 | Fluminense attack 0.859 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 0.862 / away 1.060. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cuiaba games / 20 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 34%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Fluminense 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 60% | Fluminense 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Cuiaba 1.17 / Fluminense 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.983 / def 1.270 | Fluminense attack 0.859 / def 1.377 | league avg home 0.862 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Fluminense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Cuiaba 2 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fluminense part of?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 34% chance of winning, Fluminense a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cuiaba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.98x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.32
1.16
Fluminense xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.16 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 9D 5L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 7W 7D 6L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.35 PPG, Fluminense on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fluminense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.20 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fluminense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Fluminense have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 60%, Fluminense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cuiaba) and 40% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 30% of games; Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cuiaba's games and 50% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cuiaba's recent games and 40% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Fluminense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Fluminense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Fluminense finished level at 2-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.17 xG and Fluminense 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.98 / defence 1.27 against Fluminense attack 0.86 / defence 1.38, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 34% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 34%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Fluminense 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.35 PPG, Fluminense 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.