Cuiaba 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 41%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cuiaba vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Flamengo meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Serie A outings this season: 0W 4D 1L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cuiaba have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Flamengo (all games): 3W 0D 2L across 5 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Flamengo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 40% versus Flamengo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Flamengo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.20 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.059 / defence 1.271 | Flamengo attack 0.685 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.067. Data: 5 Cuiaba games / 5 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 41% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 27%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Flamengo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Flamengo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 41% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cuiaba 1.20 / Flamengo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.059 / def 1.271 | Flamengo attack 0.685 / def 1.166 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Flamengo xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Flamengo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 2 July 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Cuiaba 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Flamengo part of?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 41% chance of winning, Flamengo a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cuiaba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 0W-4D-1L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (1.06) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (0.69x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.13
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Flamengo xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.93 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 0W 4D 1L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cuiaba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Flamengo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Flamengo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Early Season
Flamengo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Cuiaba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Flamengo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 40%, Flamengo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cuiaba) and 40% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Flamengo in 40%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 40% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cuiaba's recent games and 40% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cuiaba 0-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.20 xG and Flamengo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.06 / defence 1.27 against Flamengo attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 41% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 27%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Flamengo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.