Cuiaba 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Bahia at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 1.40 PPG versus Bahia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cuiaba, 0 for Bahia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bahia in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 46% versus Bahia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 38% | Bahia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Bahia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.874 / defence 1.127 | Bahia attack 0.698 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.031. Data: 51 Cuiaba games / 13 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Bahia 22%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 4.55. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 60% | Bahia 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Bahia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Cuiaba 1.35 / Bahia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.874 / def 1.127 | Bahia attack 0.698 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Bahia xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Bahia kick off?
Cuiaba vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Cuiaba vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Bahia part of?
Cuiaba vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 50% chance of winning, Bahia a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cuiaba and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 2 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Bahia in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.87) and Bahia's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.57
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.17
0.81
Bahia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.81 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.15 PPG, Bahia on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bahia in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Bahia in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Bahia have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Bahia away?
Cuiaba's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.83 PPG; Bahia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Bahia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2023, when Cuiaba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Bahia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Bahia?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Bahia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cuiaba) and 50% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 33%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games; Bahia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 33% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cuiaba's recent games and 50% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Bahia tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bahia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Bahia finished level at 1-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Bahia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Bahia attack 0.70 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 50% | Draw 28% | Bahia 22%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 38%, Bahia 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.15 PPG, Bahia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.